8 Forecasting8.2 Qualitative Assessment
Compare your product to others competing within the segment and decide whether it is better or worse than the competition. Start with the Courier Perceptual Map (page 11). It shows where products are currently placed. The Revision Dates at the bottom of the page reveal the timing of any future repositionings. Continue the comparison using the Courier's Segment Analyses (pages 5 - 9). These report each product's:
- Age– does the product satisfy customer age demands?
- MTBF– is reliability near the top of the range?
- Price– will price trends continue, or will new automation (displayed on page 4 of the Courier) facilitate a price reduction? (Remember, price ranges drop $0.50 per year.)
- Awareness and Accessibility– are these percentages leading, keeping pace with or falling behind other products?
All these elements contribute to the monthly customer survey.
8.2.1 December Customer Survey Score
Will your product be better or worse than average? As an estimate, look at the December customer survey score in the lower part of each Segment Analysis. The Customer Survey drives demand each month. For example, if there are four products in December scoring 32, 28, 22, and 14 (for a total of 96), then the top product's December demand would be 32/96 or 33%.
Top Product in Segment's Score / Sum of All Scores = 32 / 32 +28 +22 + 14 = 32 / 96 = 33%
What monthly customer survey scores will your product have during the year? The score will change from month to month because the segments drift, your product ages and it might be revised. Each monthly score is driven by how well your product satisfies the segment buying criteria, plus its awareness and accessibility levels. See How is the Customer Survey Score Calculated? in the FAQ|Reports section for more information on assessing your product.
Any new products about to come to market must have a plant. Plant purchases are reported on the Production Analysis (Courier , page 4).
Consider whether or not the top products in the segment can meet customer demand. On the Production Analysis, examine the top products' capacities. Can they manufacture sufficient units? If not, you could have an opportunity to exploit.
8.2 Demand Analysis provides close approximations of segment demand for each round. Products can enter or leave the segments, however the demand projections will not change.