Marketing How do we develop a sales forecast?


The "Forecasting" section of The Guide gives detailed information on forecasting within the simulation. Here is a quick, alternative method:

Go to each Segment Analysis in the Courier. Multiply "Total Industry Unit Demand" by the segment’s growth rate. This calculates the additional segment demand for the upcoming year. Add that to last years demand to determine the total demand in the segment for the upcoming year.

Drop to the bottom of the page and count the number of competitive products (products that sold more than 7% in the segment). Divide the total demand by your count.

Is this method useful? It assumes all the competitive products will sell equal amounts, which is extraordinarily unlikely. Still the method can:

  • Serve as a "reality check;"
  • Become a starting point for a qualitative forecast as you weigh the relative merits of your product against those of the competition.